Maratha activist Manoj Jarange withdraws from polls – who gains, who loses?

Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange Patil has decided to stay out of the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election. He also directed all candidates backed by his movement to withdraw their nominations by Monday noon, stirring concern within the ruling Mahayuti coalition.
During a media interaction, Patil said, “We cannot contest elections relying solely on one community. We had requested candidate lists from leaders of the Muslim and Dalit communities, but no response came. Thus, we have decided not to field candidates for this election.”
Taking a veiled jibe at certain political figures, he added, “Politics isn’t our family business. We support no party or leader. Those who promised ‘400 seats’—you have seen their outcome. The Maratha community’s influence will remain unchallenged.”
Political analysts familiar with Maharashtra’s landscape interpret Patil’s language as having deeper implications.
Manoj Jarange Patil’s influence, particularly in Marathwada—a region with eight Lok Sabha seats—has had significant political repercussions. During the last Lok Sabha elections, his opposition to the BJP and former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis contributed to the Mahayuti alliance’s losses across Marathwada, as well as in parts of Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra.
Political observers believe Patil’s decision not to field candidates impacts the election’s dynamics, especially for Mahayuti. Some leaders had hoped that Patil’s candidates would split the traditional Maratha, Dalit, and Muslim support base of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition.
In response to Patil’s decision, veteran MVA leader Sharad Pawar expressed relief, noting, “There is no connection between MVA and Patil’s withdrawal. I am glad he made this decision, as fielding candidates would have clearly benefited BJP.”
Marathwada has 46 Assembly seats, while Western Maharashtra holds 70, both regions where Patil commands significant influence. Candidates across party lines have sought his support. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Maratha, Dalit, and Muslim communities united under the MVA banner, driven by anti-BJP sentiment. Similar sentiments may prevail this time, as anti-Muslim rhetoric from certain BJP leaders continues.
However, the BJP is attempting to split the MVA vote bank, seeking to consolidate Hindu votes in Mahayuti’s favour. Ajit Pawar’s faction within Mahayuti, with its secular image, could serve as a stumbling block to this plan. Patil’s withdrawal from the election scene may significantly weaken Mahayuti’s position.
Looking ahead, while the BJP seeks to consolidate the Hindu vote for Mahayuti, the anti-BJP sentiment among Maratha, Dalit, and Muslim voters remains a challenge. Patil’s retreat from the electoral scene is expected to alter the race, possibly weakening Mahayuti’s prospects in the Maratha-dominant regions.